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Well, it’s time for another big UFC event, and for those who love betting on fights, here’s a quick look at the odds, and what I expect to happen. Now, I’m not an expert, in fact, some might say I am the worst predictor ever (Evan Shoman), but I did ok last time, and I’ll do better this time. Let’s get to it. UFC 211 Odds and Ends. (Betting lines courtesy of Ceasars Palace)
Gadzhimurad Antigulov -450
Joachim Christensen +325
Thoughts: First things first, I don’t know too much about either of these fighters. Typically when that is the case, I stay away from it. That said, Antigulov is going to win this fight. He’s much more talented and has won 13 consecutive fights entering this clash. He’s a huge favorite and there’s a reason for it. Avoid the temptation to bet the big underdog here, Antigulov is winning this handily.
Rashad Coulter +105
Chase Sherman -125
Thoughts: Coulter is making his UFC debut, while Sherman has had two fights, both losses inside the Octagon. On paper, this seems like an even fight. I think, however, the underdog here, is the smart play. He seems to be the better heavyweight athlete, he’s fighting in his hometown and he’s not the fighter coming off a devastating knockout loss. It all adds up for Coulter, who should provide a nice payday as an underdog.
Enrique Barzola +130
Gabriel Benitez -150
Thoughts: Two more fighters I don’t have a ton of experience with. Benitez has gone 3-1 in the UFC since losing on The Ultimate Fighter Latin America Season 1. He fights out of AKA and as such, has great training partners. Barzola is another TUF Latin America competitor, although he was in season 2. He’s 2-1 since joining the UFC. This is a toss up, but I am leaning towards Benitez picking up the “W” here.
Cortney Casey -115
Jessica Aguilar -105
Thoughts: Casey lost her first two UFC fights, then won her next two, before losing to Claudia Gadelha in her last outing. Aguilar is the more experienced fighter and has had more success, winning ten in a row before dropping her last fight, also to Claudia Gadelha. Aguilar would be my pick to win this fight, she’s too experienced and talented for Casey. Bet on Jessica here.
Marco Polo Reyes +290
James Vick -380
Thoughts: Reyes is a live underdog here. He’s 3-0 in the UFC and won two of those fights via stoppage. Vick is the heavy favorite, based on his experience edge, and better overall record. His lone loss in the UFC was against Beneil Dariush. I do believe Vick will most likely win this fight, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Reyes found a way to win. Going with Vick, despite the desire to bet a big underdog here.
Jason Knight +105
Chas Skelly -125
Thoughts: This should be a really good fight. I’m expecting both guys to show up and bang. Chas is a slight favorite, but I think Jason Knight gets the win here. Go ahead, throw a little something on the underdog here.
Eddie Alvarez +105
Dustin Poirier -125
Thoughts: Really? This is on the undercard? I think this fight should be amazing. It’s so hard to not automatically bet on Eddie Alvarez anytime he’s an underdog. That said, Dustin Poirier is an elite level fighter, and he can absolutely win this fight. I am not going to bet this fight because I just want to sit back and enjoy it. If I had to though, I’d put money on Eddie Alvarez.
Main PPV Card
David Branch +125
Krzysztof Jotko -145
Thoughts: Another fight that has managed to fly under the radar. Jotko has won five in a row and has a record of 19-1 as a professional. David Branch was a two weight champion in WSOF and comes back to the UFC to try and prove he’s among the best. He’s won ten in a row, and the last time he lost was to Anthony Johnson at Titan Fights. This one could go either way. I think Branch is going to get the win, but Jotko is no joke and the favorite for a reason. Underdog special, going with Branch.
Frankie Edgar -125
Yair Rodriguez +105
Thoughts: This fight is straight fire and I can’t wait to watch it. Yair is the young up and coming killer, taking on the veteran of all veterans in Frankie Edgar. It’s going to boil down to how well Edgar can deal with Yair’s diverse striking game. Yair is deadly wth his kicks. Deadly. I don’t know how to bet against Edgar, it would be like betting against America. I think Edgar wins a tough fought battle, but there will be storms he needs to weather. Should be a great fight. Edgar wins by Unanimous Decision.
Demian Maia +105
Jorge Masvidal -125
Thoughts: I’m going to be completely honest here. I think this fight goes to Demian Maia, and it should be pretty one sided. Maia is an underdog, and I think he’s easy money. I think he takes Masvidal down and clowns him on the mat earning a submission victory inside the first two rounds. People are going crazy on Masvidal based on his win over Cerrone, but he’s been hit or miss. He’s 4-3 in his last 7. I think Maia wins and wins by Rear Naked Choke, early.
Joanna Jedrzejczyk -180
Jessica Andrade +160
Thoughts: This one is easy, Joanna is fighting, Joanna is winning. She trains harder than anyone else, and her standup is just ferocious. She’s going to win this fight like she wins all her fights. I think Jessica Andrade is tough, but this isn’t about being tough. It’s about being the best, and Joanna Champion is the best.
Stipe Miocic -140
Junior Dos Santos +125
Thoughts: Stipe is double tough and is quite a champion. Not only is he a great fighter, he’s a damn good person, but that’s not what we’re talking about today. I think Junior Dos Santos went through a period where he was worn down and in too many wars. He looks refreshed and ready prior to this fight, and that could be dangerous for Stipe. These two had one amazing fight the first time they met. JDS won that encounter, and I think he wins this one as well. I’m going with Dos Santos by TKO late in the fight.
Underdogs who I believe will win. Junior Dos Santos, Demain Maia, David Branch, Eddie Alvarez, Jason Knight, Rashad Coulter.
If you pick those six fighters in a parlay, a 10.00 bet will bring you, 782.12. Good luck.